All I want for Christmas is...
a fulsome AI and Data Centre Strategy
Dear Santa,
Well, it’s been quite a year for energy.
You’ve been sitting up at the melting North Pole all year, and you’ve been making your list and checking it twice. By now, you’ve probably decided who’s been naughty and nice. I think I’ve been nice this year - but word on the street is that all Albertans are going to be in for a lump of coal.
This year, Santa, instead of asking for a present for myself, I want to ask for a present for my students. With the mainstream arrival of generative AI over the past 2 years, my job as a professor has changed pretty dramatically. It has forced me to become much more creative in my assignments (hello, experiential learning!), but also to engage in much more honest conversations with my students. At the beginning of every semester in most of my classes, we usually start with a very open conversation about AI usage. Together, we write an AI policy for the class based on how the students want to use it and what they want to learn. I call it a “Community of Learners AI Usage Agreement,” and for the most part, I think it’s fostered not only better student writing, but honest acknowledgement of a technology that we can’t hide from any longer.
Over the last year, my conversations with students about AI have changed though. As they have used ChatGPT and other AI tools more, and as they’ve learned more about them, they’ve also started to ask more questions. They used to talk a lot about plagiarism, academic misconduct. Now, they’ve started to ask substantial questions about the energy usage of generative AI systems.
“Hey, Dr. Perić, is it true that, for every ChatGPT query, we use one bottle of water for cooling?”
That depends, I answer, on the complexity of the question. On average, it’s more like one water bottle for every 20-50 ChatGPT questions. This stat though is now out of date - it was for ChatGPT 3. The next-generation ChatGPT 4 is consuming a lot more. Researchers are already busy estimating the future water footprint of AI.
In crafting our “Community of Learners AI Usage Agreement,” we’re increasingly thinking about the total energy our class will use over the course of the semester to complete all of the assignments. Students are often shocked when they start looking into the details. Here are some of the relevant facts that we talk about:
AI usage accounted around 2-3% of global energy usage in 2022.
Since 2022, energy usage has increased exponentially, but it is difficult to estimate because tech companies are often unwilling to share energy data.
Google’s GHG emissions were 50% higher in 2023 than in 2019.
The computational power required for sustaining AI growth is doubling roughly every 100 days.
In just one month in 2022, data centres that support AI processing consumed around 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity, according to the International Energy Agency.
Wells Fargo is estimating a remarkable 8050% growth in energy usage due to AI from 2024 to 2030.
What this means is that increasingly, my students are torn about AI. They simultaneously want to learn how to use AI because it will likely be indispensable to their future careers, but they are genuinely concerned about what this means for energy transition, decarbonization, and climate change.
So Santa, I’m torn too. I want to provide students with the opportunity to use the tools of the future, but at what cost?
Now Santa, unlike some other impacts of energy, we’re going to feel the AI energy boom right here at home in Alberta. As you might be aware, Mr. Claus, our Technology Minister Nate Glubish announced Alberta’s incredibly ambitious plan to become a global AI data centre in early December. He’s hoping to build $100 billion worth of AI data centre infrastructure in the next 5 years. Glubish boasted that the GoA has already created a “concierge program” to attract companies to Alberta, and is working with about a dozen companies “to help identify the fastest way through the regulatory framework to get their projects moving forward.”
In reading these bold visions of Alberta’s data-rich future, I thought to myself: well, the GoA must have thought this through. They must have a plan to power this exponentially growing industry. Glubish kept talking about an AI strategy, so I looked it up and found it.
The Alberta’s AI Data Centre Strategy is an 11 page document (6 pages if you take out the title page, images, and message from Minister Glubish). It is full of catch phrases, platitudes, generalizations, and no real details on anything. For a province that loves to form panels, stack them with “experts”, and spend millions on said panels for every decision, it’s pretty shocking that there has been no panels on our energy futures, particularly on the energy consumption required by our growing tech sector. This strategic document is high on mountain viewscapes, and low on actual information.
I know you’re busy this time of year, Santa, and probably haven’t had time to look at the strategy. Here’s my summary of what I found out about the future of AI data centres, according to the GoA:
Alberta’s natural gas sector is expected to power the growth of energy needs from these data centres (p.7).
our water consumption is set to increase with the data centre, but apparently Alberta’s Water Act will provide a sufficient regulatory framework for water allocation (p.7).
energy will come from both grid-based supply as well as off-grid power solutions (p.8).
our low corporate taxes and red-tape reduction efforts will support data centre industry growth (p.7-8);
and Alberta will work with the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation to prioritize economic reconciliation (p.11).
Because this is a thin thin document, Santa. I’m trying to read between the lines. And what I’m reading for each of the above is the following:
our natural gas usage is going to skyrocket - this means the expansion of the oil sector. How exactly are we going to support the potentially massive AI industry?
in a drought-wrought province, I would say that our Water Act is completely insufficient for dealing with AI’s water needs. And last summer’s water licensing and allocation debacle has proved that the GoA is already struggling to secure water sharing agreements for all stakeholders.
I read “off-grid” energy solutions for this government as the introduction of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) to power data centres. We all know SMRs are a serious consideration for the GoA. Alberta Innovates just stealthily formed the Alberta Nuclear Energy Consortium. More on this in 2025.
I read low corporate taxes and red-tape reduction as a continuation of this GoA’s policy of ensuring fewer tax benefits for Albertans and fewer regulations.
Lastly, the GoA will continue its focus on economic reconciliation to the detriment of political, social and other forms of reconciliation with Indigenous communities. Relationships with the land will take a back seat to industry.
Of course, these are all my interpretations, Santa. They’re intended to take the place of the actual information our GoA should supply to the public.
Inspired by my students’ own concerns and their research into our AI, energy, and water futures in Alberta, Santa, I’d like to ask you for just one present this year. Can you please get us a fulsome AI and Data Centre Strategy from the Government of Alberta? I know it’s a big ask. But I’d even be willing to sit through another blue ribbon panel for it.
To all of my readers, happy Hanukkah, merry Christmas and all the best in the new year. See you all in 2025!
I hope you've been very good this year as you've made a very big ask of Santa!